Led by an increase in residential building permits, Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index jumped 4.2 percentage points in September to a level of 129.4.
That is 15.4 points above the average for 2012 and 57 points, or 79 percent, above the cyclical low hit in June 2009.
“A surge in residential building permits in September lifted our Michigan Index despite a small dip in payroll employment for the month. Also, vehicles assemblies were strong in September,” said Robert Dye, Comerica’s chief economist, in a news release.
Dye had words of caution despite the good news.
“The surge in residential building permits is probably not sustainable and will likely be a drag on the Michigan index in coming months,” he said.
“Recent auto sales data has been soft. Auto sales dipped through September and October, down to a 15.2- million-unit pace, as fleet sales eased and consumer confidence suffered through the federal government shutdown. Auto sales are expected to show gains in the November data.”
The index consists of seven variables — nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor-vehicle production.
All data are seasonally adjusted and indexed to a base year of 2008.
